03 / Frontier technology
The tools that reshape tomorrow.
AI, energy, biotech, and materials: breakthroughs, bottlenecks, and the long road from a result to something people can use.
What we’re watching
- AI: useful capabilities, reproducible evaluations, deployment constraints, and failure modes.
- Energy & materials: efficiency, scale, durability, and economics beyond the laboratory.
- Biotech: study design, replication, practical use, and the distance between a result and a treatment.
The standard
Follow a claim from paper to replication to deployment. State the baseline, the tradeoffs, and the limits of the evidence.
From the first edition
Progress needs a measuring stick.
A compelling demonstration is the beginning of an evaluation.
Read the field note ↗